ࡱ> {}zg RLabjbjVV5zr<r<p'4 4 8,?..(VVV>>>>>>>$?BDp>Q>VVlM?%%% VV>%>%%8;Ve#9">c?0?9aE$aED;aE;%>>%?aE4 , `: Ԟ{Lb02016052SsQNpSS 05]{]LNb/gf[byxyvSbgVYRfLRl(2016t^O) 0vwb^\T:NNoS^'YYef[yxNXTNNyx]\Ovyg'`T;NR'` bb\ 0sQNpSS05]{]LNb/gf[byxyvSbgVYRfLRl 0 0Ԟ{Lb02015083S 0 0sQNpSS05]{]LNb/gf[byxyvSbgVYRfLRl 0vsQʑ 0Ԟ{Lb02015095S ۏLTv^ v^ZPRO9e0~2016t^5g31ebRlQOxvzQ[ s\ 05]{]LNb/gf[byxyvSbgVYRfLRl(2016t^O) 0pSS~`ON w~~f[`Nv^/{_gbL0DN5]{]LNb/gf[byxyvSbgVYRfLRl(2016t^O) 2016t^6g13e 5]{]LNb/gf[bZQ?eRlQ[ 2016t^6g13epSSDN5]{]LNb/gf[byxyvSbgVYRfLRl(2016t^O):NNEQRSOsyf[xvz(WhQbcGSؚI{Ye(ϑv͑\O(u EQRRToR^'YYef[yxNXTNNyx]\Ovyg'`T;NR'` cؚyf[xvzv4ls^ cRyf[xvzTؚB\!kSU\ 9hncV[ gsQyxVYRagOv|^y ~Tbbs6k[E`Q yr6R[bbyxyvSbgVYRfLRl0,{Nag Qbb(W(W\YeL]+TNf[bck_~{~vg'`_ۏNMb0YXN[ N5]{]LNb/gf[b:N,{NrTUSMOS_vN Nyxbg GW(W,gRlVYRVKNRN 3ub0zy0~yvyxyv N ck_QHrvW\O0YePg{|bg N lQ_Shve0xvzbJT{|bgV N)R{|bgN vQN{|bg ,{Nag N N@bRVYRVvbg ]~_f[bNy~9DRv SR NNQVYR0傷_0W^?e^~N NTyVYR S,gRl,{NagKNĉ[gbL0,{ Nag 3ub0zy0~yvyxyvVYRhQY N yxyvVYRhQ USMOCQ ^SVYR{|+RVYRhQCQ\y  3ub zy~y1~TV[~yv40080020002w萧~yv30060090030WS~yv2004006004b~yv (+TYe^c[yv)1002003005*jT c0R^ёRch/}RVYR(vQ-N5NNQ c1:0.3 5-10N c1:0.2,10NN N c1:0.1  1.yv3ubVYS(uNǏf[bR[ Nbb(WyxY{vX[ch *gQzyvyv02.VYR[aNPNyxyv;NcN03.zyvyxyvN~fPge:NOncN!k'`VYR04.QN5]{]LNb/gf[b:NSNUSMOvyv cN N*jTyvVYRhQVYRSNNXT gbbYTSNNXTv 1ucTg`MRvSNNXTۏLteSO3ub,v^cO~{W[RMTUS 0 ,{Vag W\O0YePg{|bgVYRhQY N W\OSYePgVYRhQ USMOCQ/ VYRhQ W\OSYePg{|+RVYRhQVYRagNf[/gNW8000 -- 20000A{|QHr>y20000B{|QHr>y 12000C{|QHr>y 8000f[/gыW0W3000 -- 8000A{|QHr>y8000B{|QHr>y 5000C{|QHr>y 3000YePg4000 -- 8000V[0YeĉRYePg 8000vQNYePg 4000Yl]f[bT{|QHr>ye4bf[bNy~9DRQHrvf[/gNW0ыW0W0YePgNQۏLVYR 1.W\OYePg/fcbbYe^bN,{N\OvNWS,{N;NvYePg gISBNybS 02.QHr>y:NV[eQHrrlQvckĉQHr>y0A{|QHr>y:NNlQHr>y0-NNSfN@\0-NV>yOyf[QHr>y0FURpSfN0SN NTQHr>y0yf[QHr>yB{|QHr>y:NhQV~vsOVfNQHrUSMO0NlQHr>yR:ggTw~NlQHr>y vQYOvQHr>y:NC{|03.,{N\O0,{N;N0oR;N0SYePg cW[peb{~NVYRhQ:N500CQNe>yOyf[4NW[N N0t]3NW[N N N,gW\ObYePgkNSVYRN!k 1u3ubNcO,gNdQz0W[pevQHr>yf0 4.YwSW\ObYePg^\O:NteSO3ub05.!h,gYePgvVYRhQ:NW[pe(W10NW[N N VYR1000CQ10NW[N N VYR500CQ01u,{N\OteSO3ub TecOpS7RW[pefSbbO(uUSMOvO(uf gbbYTSNNXTv؏{cO~{W[RMTUS0,{Nag e0xvzbJT{|bgVYRhQY N eSxvzbJTVYRhQUSMOCQ g R{|+RVYRhQA~g R100000B~g R6000C~g R3000D~g R500E~g R200l10A~g RSb4y 0 Nature 00 0Science 00 0American Economic Review 00 0Journal of Political Economy 00 20B~g R/fCSSCIegng R{|g RWSN'Yf[-NV>yOyf[xvzċN-N_S_t^lQ^vU_vSR R`te QSCI8h_Hr 0SSCIh"}|~0A&HCI0EI8h_Hrg R0SCIEg R6eU_  "&(|~ $ ( n p < @ ٽwfwWwWwWwWwWwWwfwfh ICJ OJPJQJaJ o( h Ih ICJ OJPJQJaJ #h Ih ICJ OJPJQJaJ o(#h Ih-9CJ OJPJQJaJ o(hz>h I5CJ$OJQJaJ$"hz>h I5CJ$OJQJaJ$o(h5CJ$OJQJaJ$o(h ICJ OJPJQJo(hCJ OJPJQJo(h5CJOJPJ\h5CJ,OJPJ\ &(H~> @ X d4gd3n!$da$$WD]`a$gd I d ]gd Id WD`gd Id gd I$a$gd I$d a$$a$  " X γwgXIX:X+hx>*CJ OJPJaJ o(h I>*CJ OJPJaJ o(h3n!>*CJ OJPJaJ o(h>*CJ OJPJaJ o(h5>*CJ OJPJaJ o(#h5>*CJ OJPJQJaJ o(#h>*CJ OJPJQJ\aJ o(.h{T~B*CJ KHOJPJQJ^JaJ o(ph4h Ih IB*CJ KHOJPJQJ^JaJ o(ph.h IB*CJ KHOJPJQJ^JaJ o(ph1h Ih IB*CJ KHOJPJQJ^JaJ ph *>DFPd$d$Ifa$gd` d ^gd`d gd`d WD`gd`dgd{T~$a$gd`dhgd{T~ >dfNPHjHJ  hdɸwwh_h`CJOJPJQJo(h`h`CJOJPJQJo(h_CJ OJPJQJaJ o(#h`h`CJ OJPJQJaJ o(!h{T~CJ OJPJQJ^JaJ o(hz>h`5CJ$OJQJaJ$"hz>h`5CJ$OJQJaJ$o('h`h{T~CJ OJPJQJ^JaJ o('dfhjt|l]]]]]$d$Ifa$gd`kd$$Ifl4FzFp#``* t0!    44 layt`F7+7 d$Ifgd`$d$Ifa$gd`kd$$Ifl4IrzFBp#   t0!44 layt`$d$Ifa$gd`3$$$$d$Ifa$gd`kdx$$Ifl4zֈz.FBp#`  t0!44 layt`$kdK$$Ifl4ֈz.FBp#   t0!44 layt`$d$Ifa$gd`$d$Ifa$gd` 3$$$$d$Ifa$gd`kd$$Ifl4'ֈz.FBp#   t0!44 layt` 6>FN$d$Ifa$gd`NPTZ3$$$$d$Ifa$gd`kd$$Ifl4-ֈz.FBp#   t0!44 layt`BvHnfXXXfI$d ^a$gd_d WD`gd_d gd_kd$$IflFz.p#B t0!    44 layt`$d$If^a$gd`d$IfWDd`gd_ d$Ifgd`d$IfWD `gd_0bSG44$d$If^a$gd` d$Ifgd`$d$Ifa$gd`kde$$IflF p# 6} t0!    44 l / ayt_0HJZt[L@ d$Ifgd`$d$Ifa$gd`kd,$$IflF p# 6} t0!    44 layt_$d$If^a$gd` n_S@@$d$If^a$gd` d$Ifgd`$d$Ifa$gd`kd$$IflF p# 6} t0!    44 layt`  hnU$0d$IfWD^`0a$gd_kdn$$IflF p# 6} t0!    44 layt`hjxd~~~~peV$d$Ifa$gd` $da$gd`dWD`gd`dWD`gd`dgd`kkd$$Iflp#! t0!44 layt` d(4@HT\bh"RUUUVVVVW"WNWTWX X^XjXvXXXXXXXXZ&Z0ZTZdZZ[[H\`׳׳׳׳׳ױ׳׳׳׳׳׳ׄׄ+h`h`CJ KHOJPJQJ^JaJ o(,h`h`B*CJ OJPJQJaJ o(phU)h`h`5CJ OJPJQJ\aJ o(h_CJ OJPJQJaJ o(#h`h`CJ OJPJQJaJ o(,h`h`B*CJ OJPJQJaJ o(ph4r~kd$$Ifl0,p#D t0"44 layt_$d$Ifa$gd` rr$d$Ifa$gd`~kd' $$IflV0,p#D t0"44 layt_ *4rr$d$Ifa$gd`~kd $$Ifl!0,p#D t0"44 layt_46@Hrr$d$Ifa$gd`~kdM $$Ifl0,p#D t0"44 layt_HJT\rr$d$Ifa$gd`~kd $$Ifl0,p#D t0"44 layt_\^dRS~TUUVuaYYYYYYdgd`@dVDWDd^`@gd_ d^gd_~kds $$Ifl0,p#D t0"44 layt_ 0eNSeXd 0l}3000W[N N vf[/ge0 0IQfeb 0tHr 0Nleb 0tHr l}2000W[N N vf[/ge Ɖ TB~g Re0 30C~g R/fSN'Yf[VfNnx[v8h_g R{|g RSN'Yf[VfNS_t^lQ^vU_vSR R`te 0-NV>yOyf[eXd 0l}3000W[N N 0 0ؚ!heyf[beXd 0l}3000W[N N 0 0N'Yb RYpSDe 0hQel}vf[/ge0EI0ISTPI{6eU_vOeƉ TC~g Re0 408h_g RvVYR[Ne RevHr,g:NQ YS'Y8h_g R(W -Ne8h_g Rv;`ȉ vSLeNMR RQvg RS c NNHrgbL (W -Ne8h_g Rv;`ȉ vSLeSNT RQvg R ceHrgbL0 50T6eU_|~6eU_vf[/ge GWNYec[vybge]\OzcOvh"}f:NQ1u3ubNcO TybgSh0N T|~6eU_vNgؚI{~VYR0 60D~g R/fvQNlQ_QHrvg RN+TX R0N R0yr RI{^ck RShve wQ gISSNSTCNS0 70b!hYeL]:N\ONN5]{]LNb/gf[b:N,{NrT[bUSMO (WVQYck_ RirShvf[/ge gCN0ISSNybS _N^\NVYRV080E~g RVYR200CQNPSh(WbbQDe'`QHrir Nve090Sh(WNy Rirv TNhv|Re^\O:NteSO3ub0100xvzbJTVYRhQ1 V[>yyĉRRv 0bgb 0 30000CQ/{ 2 TYQS R{vvbg 10000CQ/{3 wYw?e^QS R{vvbg 3000CQ/{4 V[[Nyb:y0YǑ~v 20000CQ/{w萧~[yb:y0wYw?e^Ǒ~v0.YOǑ~v 3000CQ/{0,{mQag SfR 0[(ueWN)R0Y‰N)RVYRhQY N wƋNCg]\OϑVYRhQUSMOCQ N)R{|+RVYRSf10000[(ueW5000Y‰300010wƋNCgcb!hYe^:N,{NN)RCgNvwƋNCg020LRSf gV[N)R@\3uS b_V[N)R@\cCg bg]lc^0,{Nag f[!h[~0W0YePg0f[/ge0xvzbJT0Sf0[(ueW0Y‰I{yxbg_0W^?e^~N NT~VYy c@bVYёNN[kOMWYVYR S gVYRI{~*gVYёvN(WVYRV0 I{~~+RNI{VYNI{VY NI{VYV[~1211.81:1.6w萧~1:1.41:1.31:1.2^~00WS~1:11:0.91:0.81.3uVYRv~0e0xvzbJTI{\OT b!hYe^^:N#Nb,{N\O02.3uVYRvYePg b!hYe^^:N;Nb,{N;N3.3uVYRvSf0[(ueW0Y‰ b!hYe^^:NN)RCgN04.vQNbg b!hYe^^:N,{N#N0,{kQag !hOT\O-N[eve0R&~9yv [bbQm^ g'Y/edv 1uyxYcQVYReHh bbRlQOnx[0 ,{]Nag T{|VYVYёv*NN@b_z 1u*NNbb0 TNbg$NySN NVYRv c1\ؚSRYt N͑YVYR0,{ASag yxYkt^3g~~3ub NNt^^yxVYR VYRvyxbgveHeV:N NNt^^v1g1e12g31e0,{ASNag 1ubg@b^\USMObۏL~N{vvzT ޏ TvsQPge cyxYwQSOBlcOv^fPge cebf[byxY0,{ASNag yxY#Gl;`~hQbT Nbvyxbg %NeVYR0,{ASNag g NR`b_KNNvyxbgNNVYR1.N(W5]{]LNb/gf[bg[bvyxbg sS[bNy_5]{]LNb/gf[b+Ty0LbyL NT[bvyxbg N(WVYRKNR0e0NWNlQ_ShbQHrve:NQ N;N{ Ta~ve:NQ yxVYyTN)RNeNbfNve:NQ02.QN c gsQBl ceۏLbg{vvyxbgGWN_,gRlĉ[vVYR03.*gǏyxYb0*g(WyxY{vX[chN3ubN*gcOvsQfPgevyxyvNNVYR04.yxbg[bN gݏ̀yxS_0f[/gĉL:Nvݏ~ݏĉ`b_v^g^\[v0,{ASmQag ,gRlck_lQ^KNew_Y[e KNMRvvsQVYRRl Te^bk0,{ASNag ,gRl1uf[byxY#ʑ0PAGE 1PAGE 2VZVVVVWNWWXFXPXVX$d$Ifa$gd`$d^a$gd`dgd`dWD`gd` VXXX^XjXrr$d$Ifa$gd`~kd $$IflY07" t0 44 layt_jXlXvXXrr$d$Ifa$gd`~kd $$Ifl07" t0 44 layt_XXXXrr$d$Ifa$gd`~kd,$$Ifl)07" t0 44 layt_XXXYYYYYYooaUUUF$d$Ifa$gd` d$Ifgd`dWD`gd`dWD`gd_~kd$$Ifl07" t0 44 layt_YYYYZZZ&Z@kdR$$IflB\7 "ONO t0 44 l / ayt_$d$Ifa$gd`&Z(Z0Za@aBaDaHaJaLa}}}}uououokuou`uok}h_0JmHnHuh h0JjhUhz>jhz>U4h`h{B*CJ KHOJPJQJ^JaJ o(phh`h`OJQJ h`h`CJOJPJQJaJ(h`h`CJKHOJPJQJ^JaJ+h`h`CJ KHOJPJQJ^JaJ o((h`h`CJ KHOJPJQJ^JaJ ! aaaa*a,a.aDaFaHaJaLadgd`h]h&`#$ 3 0182P. A!"n#$n%S $$If!vh#v#v#v*:V l4 t0!++555*ayt`$$If!vh#v#v#v#v#v:V l4I t0!++55555ayt`$$If!vh#v#v#v #v#v#v:V l4z t0!+555 555ayt`$$If!vh#v#v#v #v#v#v:V l4 t0!+555 555ayt`$$If!vh#v#v#v #v#v#v:V l4' t0!+555 555ayt`$$If!vh#v#v#v #v#v#v:V l4- t0!+555 555ayt`$$If!vh#v#v#vB:V l t0!555Bayt`$$If!vh#v #v6#v}:V l t0!5 565}/  / ayt_$$If!vh#v #v6#v}:V l t0!5 565}ayt_$$If!vh#v #v6#v}:V l t0!5 565}ayt`$$If!vh#v #v6#v}:V l t0!5 565}ayt`$$If!vh#v!:V l t0!5!ayt`$$If!vh#v#vD:V l t0"55Dayt_$$If!vh#v#vD:V lV t0"55Dayt_$$If!vh#v#vD:V l! t0"55Dayt_$$If!vh#v#vD:V l t0"55Dayt_$$If!vh#v#vD:V l t0"55Dayt_$$If!vh#v#vD:V l t0"55Dayt_$$If!vh#v#v:V lY t0 55ayt_$$If!vh#v#v:V l t0 55ayt_$$If!vh#v#v:V l) t0 55ayt_$$If!vh#v#v:V l t0 55ayt_$$If!vh#vO#vN#v#vO:V lB t0 5O5N55O/  / ayt_$$If!vh#vO#vN#v#vO:V l) t0 5O5N55O/ ayt_$$If!vh#vO#vN#v#vO:V l t0 5O5N55O/ ayt_$$If!vh#vO#vN#v#vO:V l t0 5O5N55O/ ayt_b 664466666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666668 0@P`p6888 0@P`p 0@P`p 0@P`p 0@P`p 0@P`p 0@P`p8XV~PJ_HmH nHsH tHJ`J cke $1$a$ CJKH_HaJmH nHsH tHN@N h 1dB$$@&TJCJ,aJ,5KH,\Z@Z h 2d$$@&CJ OJ PJQJ ^JaJ 5\$A`$ ؞k=W[SONi@N 0nfhOr> 0RQk=1WD` OJQJaJ\\  Char Char Char ChardYDa$$1$,L, egVD d^d,O, {T~p01$KHaJPK![Content_Types].xmlN0EH-J@%ǎǢ|ș$زULTB l,3;rØJB+$G]7O٭Vxjm)ʬuWLfdݮ+5_4csj-V?k3rm}gzgs嚋7xwsȈR W*)|jȫKXͫ dXIBF؇bnh ( *'vɗ3KZjz'c*_=}<9ݻw~]8^~_o?xYýg~^G}J0Emh=Ԅ Ξa>s$-, Oɠ=Hp Ua/ UO d*:(.fTU/!9$V[|hrvs-iUt. 6ڪ4Cebs)bMjBekp um,fd$͑{6GUVf~b#Vb@qTTW.ޛd)i@vdq9Y^X7{2%uHx+af6]>f#sm*qqDHehK)@?71oggo`:fղekp£2֌Nj8ǰD CB?81e>nEeU}H]dm1iQ6褣֧ z &&&) d`La"; d N0 h4H\VVXjXXXY&ZTZZH\ aLa !#$%&'(123456789:<  ")!!  <Zs>@H 0(  0(  6 3 ? $(69:>@AGb   "?Bijklno[x{ .]` *,9<=BGHLOW\j{ #5>EFHJKL[bcgnr ;BWX\`cvx  7>MP^`gkmovy&)/13456;>EHORjm  # ' 1 4 5 @ A B C U o }  6 ] e q   ! = G K Z _ ` a c k v { | }      ( , 3 7 ? @ X Y }  #7]`ux @ABCEGHJLR )/?BRi39RX\prsuvxy{|:;gjloPQ   RUmpprsuvxy{|3ss3333333sss333Eo -c > 5prsuvxy{|,a!V[B,{f;8r9Kj~M2dqJUqJUVV7W7W(W(W(W(W*W*W.!YThQmhYvPv<. 0^`0o(0 \^`\hH) b\^b`\hH.  \^ `\hH.  \^ `\hH) N \^N `\hH. \^`\hH. \^`\hH) :\^:`\hH.z0^z`0CJOJPJQJ^J0 \^`\hH) \^`\hH. :\^:`\hH.  \^ `\hH)  \^ `\hH. &\^&`\hH. \^`\hH) n\^n`\hH. U0^U`05o(0 \^`\hH) q\^q`\hH.  \^ `\hH.  \^ `\hH) ] \^] `\hH. \^`\hH. \^`\hH) I\^I`\hH.h^h`o( H\^H`\hH) \^`\hH. \^`\hH. 4\^4`\hH)  \^ `\hH. | \^| `\hH.  \^ `\hH) \^`\hH.%00%0%0% %0^`OJPJQJ^J0\^`\)T\T^T`\.\^`\. \ ^ `\)@ \@ ^@ `\. \ ^ `\.\^`\),\,^,`\. 0^`0o(0 H\^H`\hH) \^`\hH. \^`\hH. 4\^4`\hH)  \^ `\hH. | \^| `\hH.  \^ `\hH) \^`\hH. 0^`05o(0 H\^H`\hH) \^`\hH. \^`\hH. 4\^4`\hH)  \^ `\hH. | \^| `\hH.  \^ `\hH) \^`\hH. 0^`0o(0 H\^H`\hH) \^`\hH. \^`\hH. 4\^4`\hH)  \^ `\hH. | \^| `\hH.  \^ `\hH) \^`\hH.7Wmv,a!MYv{f;(W(W*Wr9KqJUV.!Yr[        \2        s         n        V        `        z:        mN\ L)f <?\U :Y-j 5S\ \/xq !m!3n!o!;$s%gQ&&o((j*/}+vs,--[R2E4<7?7e:< <]<v>z>?k@}@;A/EdBEoE}{T~7>sb&`)=BWn`/{EE: Z 7=%sR L^g:;&fQ'%|l(0G%Oz2NO&6_g=~%DIfZx)\/'Qy^?(s/l2I DUL9@_~S|KGlLve ["gU"E P;BYQ~$f_ *v*EB -9qSlK&xau?]o1'vr !"/pu8 ~t՜.+,D՜.+,|8   (0h d ?GKSOProductBuildVer2052-10.1.0.5603  !"#$%&'()*+,-./0123456789:;<=?@ABCDEFHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ[\]^_`abcdefghiklmnopqstuvwxy|Root Entry FpOx~Data >^1TableGEWordDocument5zSummaryInformation(jDocumentSummaryInformation8rCompObjn  FMicrosoft Word 97-2003 ĵ MSWordDocWord.Document.89q